Senegal Revises Economic Benchmarks as GDP Rebase Drives Debt Burden Lower
Senegal has unveiled updated national accounts after overhauling the methodology used to calculate economic output—an adjustment that significantly improves the country’s headline debt metrics. The revised data, released by the National Agency for Statistics and Demography (ANSD), comes as Dakar races to restore credibility with creditors and investors following months of scrutiny over opaque public liabilities.
The government had already hinted in July that it was re-benchmarking gross domestic product (GDP), switching to a more recent reference year to better capture new and fast-growing sectors. The recalibration moves the base year from 2014 to 2021, folding in emerging industries such as digital payments, early oil-and-gas activity, and expanding cashew processing—areas that have reshaped Senegal’s economic landscape over the past decade.
Under the updated framework, ANSD now values Senegal’s 2021 GDP at 17,316 billion CFA francs, a 13.5% jump from previous estimates. The revision sharply trims the public-debt-to-GDP ratio for that year from 90.8% to 80%. But the publication stops short of offering revised numbers for subsequent years, leaving uncertainty about the government’s true debt load today.
The timing is politically charged. Earlier in July, S&P Global Ratings slashed Senegal’s long-term sovereign grade to CCC+ from B-, warning its debt could soar toward 120% of GDP by end-2024. The downgrade put the country on “CreditWatch developing,” citing doubt over Senegal’s capacity to service looming commercial obligations. Officials responded by arguing that the agency’s forecast failed to incorporate the impact of the ongoing statistical overhaul.
Senegal’s fiscal transparency has been under intense pressure since last year, when undisclosed government debts surfaced—prompting the IMF to halt a US$1.8 billion financing package. The new administration blames the irregularities on governance lapses under former President Macky Sall. The IMF reiterated in July that GDP rebasing is “not a requirement” for programme negotiations, but has yet to comment on the fresh data.
Economists caution that although rebasing often improves indicators by capturing under-measured industries, sweeping revisions can also amplify concerns about data integrity, fiscal opacity, and institutional oversight. Senegal now faces the challenge of demonstrating that the updated statistics reflect real structural strength—rather than a statistical facelift—as it works to rebuild trust in global markets.
Source: Araba Sey
