Highlights of the 2026 Budget’s Macroeconomic Outlook and Medium-Term Objectives

On Thursday, November 13, Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson delivered the 2026 Budget Statement and Economic Policy to Parliament, presenting a refined and more measured set of macroeconomic objectives for the coming year and the medium-term horizon. The budget envisions an economic revival grounded in stability, sustained expansion, and prudent fiscal management, with well-defined benchmarks stretching from 2026 to 2029.

Within this medium-term economic framework, the government is targeting an average real GDP growth rate of 4.9 percent, while non-oil GDP is expected to settle around 5.0 percent—an indication of ongoing efforts to broaden the economic base beyond the extractive sector. Inflation is forecast to stay within the 8 ± 2 percent tolerance range, and the primary balance is projected to register a surplus of 1.5 percent of GDP on a commitment basis from 2026 onward, consistent with the Fiscal Responsibility Framework designed to reinforce the recent strides made toward macroeconomic stability.

Externally, the government is aiming to maintain gross international reserves equivalent to no less than three months of import cover—a threshold the minister described as essential for bolstering investor confidence, reinforcing external buffers, and promoting stability in the cedi.

For the 2026 financial year, Dr. Ato Forson outlined a set of concrete targets which he believes are attainable under the administration’s economic reset strategy. The budget forecasts overall real GDP growth of at least 4.8 percent, propelled by stronger performance in the services, manufacturing, and agricultural sectors.

Non-oil real GDP is projected to rise by no less than 4.9 percent, signalling the government’s continued determination to reduce dependence on petroleum-related revenues.

Detailing the fiscal outlook, the Minister indicated that the government expects a budget deficit of 2 percent in 2026—an improvement over the 2.8 percent shortfall anticipated for 2025.

According to Dr. Ato Forson, these macroeconomic indicators embody the government’s renewed dedication to macroeconomic stability, durable growth, and disciplined fiscal stewardship as Ghana advances into the next stage of economic recovery and transformation.

By Hadassah Yorke